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From: Economy

Economy

Economics, NGOs and More

Raddawi’s firing was a personal response from PM Otri for what he considered a direct personal attack by Raddawi.. it was Raddawi’s critical public lecture of the 10th 5-year plan,
Raddawi’s firing was a personal response from PM Otri for what he considered a direct personal attack by Raddawi.. it was Raddawi’s critical public lecture of the 10th 5-year plan, delivered 4 days after the PM presented a positive report on the outcome of the plan to the parliament that caused his dismissal.
PM Otri took it personally, it seems. It is not the first time Raddawi criticized the plan, but he is deliberately attacked the prime minister. The dispute did not reach the level of the president and he does not seem to have had a direct hand in the removal of Raddawi….. Ehsani should expect a less “painful” pace for reforms now. Dardari has one less excuse. Also read this English summary of Raddawi’s last lecture.
Milli Schmidt writes:

I wish to add a couple of points to the ‘economics’ discussion that have not been mentioned, but are important:

- as Ehsani points out, in the medium term, ‘liberalisation’ of the economy will lead to greater income disparity and poverty. It is likely that more people will seek to express their frustration publicly, this is of course one of the reasons the government is reluctant. More importantly however, in the Syrian context, the almost ‘default’ option for Syrians to express their frustration with the elite state and the way spoils are divided among elites (of all religions) is to fall back on their sectarian identity. This is incredibly dangerous. It is likely that growing popular frustration in Syria would lead to sectarian violence as this is the way people express discontent of all kinds (including economic discontent). Blame is nearly always placed on another group and confidence drawn from the fact that one belongs to the ‘right’ and good group. Ussama Makdisi in fact has provided a convincing analysis that class/economic discontent was a major reason for the militia politics of the Lebanese war (see his articles in MERIP) and I believe that a similar analysis can be made for Syria – ten, fifteen years down the line, when Jaramana has indeed become a slum, not a poor suburb. There is no national dialogue going in whatsoever about how to deal with the effects of economic ‘liberalisation’, there is no transparency, no explanation to the wider public about why the government is doing what, no calls even that everybody has to ‘tighten belts’ etc to improve the economy in the long term. In fact sectarian thinking is as strong as ever.

- The education sector remains a disaster with no real signs that the government is making it a priority to improve access to good, public, affordable education. The private unis have changed nothing about this. Positively, french and English are now being taught at primary level. The government faces a paradox here as it needs well educated, analytical minds – but people with minds like these can hardly thrive in the stifling, politicised working environment in Syria and even very patriotic people who possess such minds and education want to leave. The scramble for European/US visas also remains as strong as ever, perhaps more so than five years ago.

- the investment environment remains very unattractive for foreign investors, and there is no sign fo a concerted effort at all levels to change this. A friend of mine working at a JV between the Syrian gov and another Arab state confirmed that the non-Syria partners are getting very frustrated and are ready to pull the plug on the project, as, despite high level political support everything takes far too long. Foreigners cannot buy land in Syria, even long term leases are incredibly difficult to obtain. The government can intervene at any moment in surprising fashion: last month, all foreign banks, most of them are Lebanese, were informed that all employees, including the most senior management, have to be Syrian! all foreigners have to be replaced within nine months.there was no preview about it, no discussion, it was simply announced as a populist move. Disaster for the banks, and very bad sign for any other foreign bank wanting to invest in Syria.

- In conclusion, I believe that addressing the above are more important and should be tackled FIRST before lifting subsidies. Attract private investment first by strengthening judiciary, binding hands of ministries trying to interfere, gradually closing government factories, start cutting back interference of economic players close to the top. Then start cutting subsidies, or start, but very slowly. Otherwise the negative effects of liberalisation, unequal distribution of the increase in wealth, more corruption and displays of ostentatious wealth plus public discontent, will be much worse.
Signals of Change from Syria
Rami Khouri, Senior Fellow, The Dubai Initiative
Op-Ed, Agence Global
January 27, 2010

DAMASCUS — I have been traveling to Syria regularly for 40 years, and every time I visit Damascus I make time to go to the old city and the spectacular early 8th Century AD Umayyad Mosque. The timeless beauty and power of the place are always dazzling, no matter how many times you experience it.

Equally constant are the nature and direction of modern political rule in Syria, which has been under Baath Party guardianship since the early 1960s. Whether you like it or dislike it, Syrian policy under President Bashar Assad — as under his late father Hafez Assad — has been very consistent, changing only in response to intense internal or external pressures (such as its departure from Lebanon in 2005, or its gradual economic reforms in the past decade).

Today, we may be witnessing signs of a new strand of change in a society that does not change very often, this time in the civil society sector. At a conference here in Damascus I attended last weekend, organized by the Syria Trust for Development, Syria witnessed several simultaneous phenomena. It held an international conference on “the emerging role of civil society in development” that was based on an open call for papers, with participation by dozens of scholars from around the world. The few Syrians who presented papers were more analytical than propagandistic. Two keynote speakers were from the United States and the United Kingdom – hardly the sort of thing one expects from a country that defines itself as the throbbing heart of Arabism.

First Lady Asma Assad opened the conference by declaring that the state wanted to open more space for civil society to work, develop and partner with the government in designing and implementing development-oriented policies. We will learn from our mistakes, she said, and a law will be passed soon — after consultations with civil society — to provide non-governmental organizations the safeguards they need to operate effectively. She challenged them, for their part, to rise to the occasion and achieve higher levels of efficacy and professionalism. Her overall theme of partnership reflected a realization that the government alone could not provide all the expertise or services needed to develop the country at the pace that its citizens expect.

The same message was delivered more explicitly by the Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, Dr. Abdullah Dardari, who noted the weaknesses or limits of both the state and the market economy in achieving national developmental goals. Civil society and citizen participation through non-governmental organizations are critical for moving on Syria’s goals, ……

….The best hope now is that Syrians themselves will test the sincerity of their government’s call for a deeper, stronger civil society. If the state is sincere, this is a moment of some hope for Syria and its neighbors. If it is bluffing, this is the moment to call its bluff and find out.

Protected timeless treasures are great for tourism and a sense of historical identity; a prosperous modern state, on the other hand, needs dynamism, pluralism, citizen participation, a free flow of ideas, and the protective framework of the rule of law. We shall soon find out if Syria can master both sides of the national equation, as its new rhetoric suggests it seeks to do.